THE EFFECTS RESULTING FROM THE APPLICATION OF THE CONCEPT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL TOURISM ON STARA PLANINA

The development of rural tourism on Stara planina (Old Mountain) has a positive impact on the economic development of the local communities in the area. However, if an adequate program of the sustainable development of tourism on Stara planina were made, that would also have positive effects as an accompanying factor contributing to the development of rural tourism. In particular, the results would show that there is a need for the preservation of the quality of the environment and the development of all resources, especially with respect to the realization of an economic profit. The aim of the paper is to detect the extent to which the effects arising from the development of rural tourism depend on the implementation of the program of the sustainable tourism development of the mountain. The method that makes the realization of a causal connection between these two phenomena possible is the linear regression analysis. The purpose of the regression analysis is to determine the shape of such a connection, i.e. the dependence between the observed phenomenon, by applying a mathematical formula and a range of corresponding assumptions. Therefore, it best describes the quantitative relationship between the variation in the observed phenomenon of reality, as well as the agent that serves to evaluate the predictive value and the dependent variable against the desired value of the explanatory variables or the effects resulting from the development of rural tourism on Stara planina. 1 Mladjan Maksimović Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management, Economics and Finance, University Business Academy in Novi Sad, Jevrejska Street no. 24, 11000 Belgrade, Phone: +381 64 1479793, E-mail: mladjan.maksimovic@mef.edu.rs 2 Darjan Karabašević Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management, Economics and Finance, University Business Academy in Novi Sad, Jevrejska Street no. 24, 11000 Belgrade, Phone: +381 60 3383333, E-mail: darjan.karabasevic@mef.edu.rs. 3 Miodrag Brzaković Ph.D., Associate Professor, Faculty of Management, Economics and Finance, University Business Academy in Novi Sad, Jevrejska Street no. 24, 11000 Belgrade, Phone: +381 64 1820103, E-mail: miodrag.brzakovic@mef.edu.rs. 4 Pavle Brzaković MA., Faculty of Management, Economics and Finance, University Business Academy in Novi Sad, Jevrejska Street no. 24, 11000 Belgrade, Phone: +381 64 3290255, E-mail: pavlebzakovic@yahoo.com. 1596 EP 2017 (64) 4 (1595-1606) Mladjan Maksimović, Darjan Karabašević, Miodrag Brzaković, Pavle Brzaković


Introduction
The rural areas still account for a significant part of the territory of the Republic of Serbia -namely 85% (Bogdanov, 2007) and quite a substantial part of the Serbian population still lives there -42%. Therefore, the issue of rural development and the welfare of the rural population is one of the main issues of the overall sustainable development of the Republic of Serbia. The rural areas are being seriously faced with a large number of problems, such as strong depopulation, economic underdevelopment, growing poverty and generally unfavorable conditions for life. In the past few decades, rural tourism, as well as commercial tourism, has been accompanied by many environmental, social and cultural undesired consequences; thus, there is an imposed need for the framing of this activity by applying the concepts of sustainable development. Although the modern world is faced with responsibility and the awareness of the fact that the planet must be preserved for the present and future generations, it is necessary to reconcile human needs with the preservation of nature, because it is the obligation of the present generation to leave a chance to posterity, at least to the extent that they themselves have had.
The current generation has the right to resources and a healthy environment, but it must not compromise the same rights for generations to come (Markovic, Pejanović, 2012;Jovicic, 2002). Sustainable tourism means an industry that has a minimal impact on the local culture and environment, which simultaneously promotes the creation of new jobs, the earning of adequate wages and the protection of ecosystems, (http:// www.logos.org.rs). There is no single definition of the sustainable development of rural tourism; it can, however, be said that the sustainable development of rural tourism implies the observance of the general principles of sustainable development and ethical changes with all the participants in the tourism process. Although the concern for sustainable development is regularly presented as the foundation of the modern planning and management of tourist destinations, the question of how it is applied in practice is regularly raised (Ruhanan, 2012).
In Johannesburg in 2002, Serbia set sustainable tourism as an example of sustainable development, i.e. it presented tourism based on the concept of sustainable development (Zivkovic, 2013). According to Zivkovic, the goal of the program is to develop the legal and policy frameworks in order to support the diversification of the rural economy through tourism and to contribute to achieving the Millennium Development Goals at the national level, better connections and the organization of rural tourism by improving the capacity of local actors to provide services and production in accordance with the national strategy at the local level.

Literature Review
In managing the sustainable development of rural tourism, tourism organizations play a very important role since their basic task is to foster co-operation among rural tourism actors in different destinations (Pechlaner et al., 2012). The introduction of external control and the management of tourist facilities in registered destinations also play an important role in local socio-economic development (Akama, Chieti, 2007). When the family households engaged in rural tourism are concerned, there is a need for such cooperation, as well as the creation of a partnership network, which is certainly an interesting phenomenon, because this form of cooperation is far more effective than the traditional application of the consortium. In this way, there is a popular phenomenon known as the "integration flock", which is an extremely important resource when the development of rural tourism is in question (Krajnović et al., 2011).
The appearance of a distance in cooperation observed between individual family households and the relevant Ministry may serve as a guide to the state-level institutions that, using modern management tools and modern technology, connect with family households so as to be better acquainted with their development problems (Cawley, Desmond, 2007).
It is noted that such a significant form of cooperation exists with the institutions at the local level; it is weaker with those at the regional level and the weakest with the institutions at the level of the state (Clarke, 1996). This finding is consistent with the guidelines for the development of rural tourism and it is defined by the Directives of the European Commission (IQM) model, where the word about the strategic planning and overall management of the development of rural tourism, as well as the other forms of tourism, must come from the base or the local communities where rural tourism is being developed (Gilbert, 1989). The sustainable development of rural tourism is now an effective tool for the development of local communities; however, the tourism industry very often has no significant role at all in all of this (Akama & Chieti, 2007).
Today, modern tourists are viewed as the whole chain of the entire tourist offer, from the moment of booking tickets to their returning home. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce the concept of the TQM (Total Quality Management) as a management tool, which would be an imperative of modern business. One of the suggestions in this case was the construction of the appropriate facilities that, together with natural and cultural resources, represent the key attractions and improve the quality of tourists' stays in the country (Cvijanovic, 2014).
The development of the programs of the sustainable development of rural tourism on Stara planina and the general tourist offer, which would provide a wide range of diverse content, should certainly be implemented in order to meet tourists' needs. In this context, it is necessary that aggressive marketing, advertising and market performance should be implemented in order to set the goal and make both domestic and foreign tourists become familiar with the outstanding natural beauty offered by rural tourism on Stara planina. The aggressive marketing policy oriented towards the development of this type of tourism must be consistent with the implementation of the design ideas of the tourist offer in general (Scheyvens, 2007) because tourist propaganda is one of the instruments of the tourism policy, applied in order to achieve certain goals. In that way, there would certainly be an increased fluctuation of tourists as a result of the propaganda policy, which in this case is a potential engine for the economic development (Brown, Hall, 2008) of the rural areas on Stara planina. In the opinion of the majority, the task of the local governments, as well as that of many tourist organizations and the nongovernmental sectors, was to be maximally involved in this industry not only as the actors, but also as the backing bearers of the activities of propaganda. The members of the rural households that would be included in tourism, together with the accompanying infrastructure and the related activities, do not have to look for additional jobs outside their place of residence. The modern management of the household can strategically allocate the existing capacity with the aim of meeting tourists' current and future needs (Scoones, 2009; Biddulph, 2015).
The development of rural tourism on Stara planina also implies making the rural areas closer to the local community in order to protect the living environment. The strengthening of human resources in the tourism industry is also an important strategic direction in the development of rural tourism on Stara planina. The basic characteristic of employment in the tourism sector is the need for a large number of unskilled or semiskilled, seasonal workers because there is a great need for the jobs that do not require professional qualifications. On the other hand, such a low qualification structure shows that it takes a relatively little time for their professional training and development.
Human resources in rural tourism are characterized by a high level of the age structure of the employees. Simultaneously, it reflects the state of the economy and society because all those who cannot follow the trends of modern knowledge and education are left without work engagement in other activities and, in this way, they seek salvation in the tourism industry. On the other hand, rural tourism also requires dynamism, enthusiasm and professional young people ready to respond and adapt to every challenge. The positive perception of a tourist destination and the tourist's pleasant first impression can only be encouraged by young people, those who are ambitious, professional, knowledgeable of several foreign languages and who have all the relevant information necessary for tourists.
The favorable geographical position of Stara planina provides recognizable importance for the development of rural tourism on the mountain, with the goal of the further economic and ecological development of the rural area and the local community. Organizing natural and cultural heritage into one territorial system is one of the factors that drive the development of a region through achieving integration between culture, the environment, characteristic and sustainable development, where the dynamic and longterm effects of an action taken by institutional organizations can effectively manage the development of rural tourism and the natural environment (Mitchell & Ashley, 2010). The development of agriculture, as an important part of the regional economy, is very important because healthy agricultural households can respond to the tourist demand related to rural tourism. Promoting agricultural products in direct contact with tourists may not guarantee a direct economic benefit, but it does certainly provide a basis for comparing the prices and the quality of agricultural products to other rural destinations (Gibson, 2009;Lacher, Nepal, 2010;Sharpley, 2002;Walpol, Goodwin, 2000). This leads to the improvement of economic conditions and the development of the economic and non-economic activities that meet the tourist's needs, simultaneously being the key challenge for tourism service providers in rural areas, i.e. in small rural communities (Zapata et al., 2011).

Research Materials and Methods
The aim of this paper is to determine the extent to which the realization of a program of the sustainable development of the tourism of Stara planina depends on the effects of the development of rural tourism. The research study was carried out in the territory of Eastern Serbia, in the region of the foothills of Stara planina, in the period from April 15, 2017 to May 15, 2017. The research was done anonymously and the questionnaires were used as the research tool, the number of the validly filled ones being 250. The proposed effects that would result from the realization of the programs of the sustainable development of the tourism of Stara planina are as follows: • The preservation of the quality of the environment and all the developmental resources. • Making economic profits.
• The preservation of the social integrity of the local community.
• The preservation of the affirmation of the cultural integrity of Stara planina.
• Increased employment in the tourism sector.
• The preservation of the rural environment and the cultural heritage.
• Motivating the local population to stay in the countryside.
A five-step Likert scale was applied to the gradation of the received responses and the data processing was carried out by applying the SPSS 23.0 software package. Based on the data obtained from the conducted descriptive analysis, the determinants are defined as the survey segments. Therefore, several variables are aggregated into one single determinant that is the bearer of all of the information related to the responses of each survey segment using the arithmetic mean derived from the data on the same scale of measurement. In this way, we now obtained the descriptive statistical parameters that explain the form, the distribution and the heterogeneity/homogeneity of the data. This is a quantitative continuous random variable -the determinant, which was subject to checking whether that the same belongs to the normal distribution of the random variable. This check was performed by the application of the universal Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test.
After the said test had been applied, the new random variable-determinant was found not to fulfill the regularity of the random variable distribution, so it was necessary to EP 2017 (64) 4 (1595-1606) Mladjan Maksimović, Darjan Karabašević, Miodrag Brzaković, Pavle Brzaković apply one of the basic transformation methods, the so-called "degree" transformation, after which the complete analytics and exploration for the so-called transformed random variable-determinant was repeated.
High heterogeneity was eliminated by the data transformation, so the determinant took on the appearance of the so-called Gaussian bell, as can be seen from the following tables and charts.  Table 1 reveals the fact that the average value of the determinant is 3.7592, where the confidence interval ranges from 3.6806 to 3.8377, with the standard deviation of less than 1, thus indicating the moderate heterogeneity of the data. The average minimum value is 1.37 and the maximum is 4.90. The coefficient of the spinning asymmetry partially increased, as can be seen on the chart of the normal distribution of the frequency of the branch-sheet model, Fig. 1.
The normality test (  Figure 1 show that the obtained results are arranged according to the Gaussian curve. Source: Author's calculation based on the survey data

Research Results
The regression analysis is the method that provides the accomplishment of the causal link. Bearing in mind the purpose of the regression analysis between the observed appearances by applying the mathematical formula and an array of the adequate assumptions, it describes the best quantitative dependence between the variations of the observed appearances in reality, as well as the means that serve to evaluate and foresee changeable and variable values for the desirable value. Source: Author's calculation based on the survey data Table 3 clearly states the simple linear correlation coefficient as the relative measurement (0.478) that indicates a certain positive link between the variables. The determination coefficient is 0.229 and the fixed determination coefficient is 0.226. The surging effects of the development of rural tourism are somewhat dependent on the realization of the program of the sustainable development of the tourism of Stara planina and in this case it is 23%. Whether this is a significant indicator or not can be concluded from the following table. The standard error of the assessment for the tested variable is smaller than the sample error, which is indicative of the fact that there is a justification of the given model. Source: Author's calculation based on the survey data Table 4. accounts for the variability explained by the justified determinant, which is statistically significant, which is confirmed by the statistical F test. Source: Author's calculation based on the survey data Based on Table 5, a conclusion can be drawn that the intercept of the regression line is statistically significant based on the t test and the probability of a deviation is far less than 0.05. The positive incline (the sustainable development of the tourism of Stara planina) is also statistically significant with respect to the effects surging from rural tourism, which is also visible on the scatter diagram below. Namely, we can ascertain that the program is highly significant because not only by producing it, but also by having the same implemented a rise in the effects surging from the development of the tourism of Stara planina will be achieved.
The scatter diagram (Figure 2) indicates the existence of a quantitative accordance between the variations of the observed appearances. Namely, by the implementation of the program, the effects of the development grow, which confirms the existence of a direct link between the observed appearances.

Conclusion
The development of the rural tourism of Stara planina (Old Mountain) depends on many factors that might have an influence in different ways. The surging effects of rural tourism are: the quality preservation of the environment, higher employment in the tourism sector and, therefore, the preservation and achievement of an economic profit and local social integrity.