MARKET PRODUCTION OF MEAT AS A FACTOR OF THE ACHIEVED LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIAN AGRICULTURE

In the paper, the mutuality of the market production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat and the achieved level of development of agriculture as per Serbia’s districts in the period from 2001 to 2016 are analyzed. The ranking of districts in Serbia is done by the I-distance method. Similarities are determined by cluster analysis method, while results are represented by a dendrogram. Belgrade District shows a deficit in the market production of all meats. In the three districts of Vojvodina Region, there is a deficit in sheep meat and in the two districts, there is a deficit in poultry meat. The three districts of Sumadija and Western Serbia Region, there is a deficit in the production of pigmeat and poultry meat. The Region of Southern and Eastern Serbia has a deficit in the production of poultry meat. © 2018 EA. All rights reserved.


Introduction
In the development of Serbia's economy, agriculture has provided accumulation and workforce for the development of non-agricultural activities, raw materials for the processing industries, a major user of the outputs of industrial products, and the significant harmonization of the country's foreign-trade balance. Activities in agriculture have an influence on the protection and improvement of the living environment and the concept of sustainable development. For that reason today, agriculture is said to be playing a multifunctional role in economic development.
The growth of the living standard and quality of nutrition of a population has an influence on increased demand for livestock products. The interdependence of The development of agriculture in Serbia primarily depends on soil and natural conditions. This is indicative of the need for territorialization in order to achieve better results in agriculture, especially in plant and livestock production, which are directly dependent upon natural conditions. Using comparative natural advantages contributes to the uniform territorial development of Serbia.
As a significant economic branch in every country, agriculture has its locomotive of development, which namely is animal husbandry. Animal husbandry also has its main artery represented by milk production. The previously established fact enables us to conclude that agriculture and animal husbandry are interwoven, that animal husbandry leans against agriculture and represents a higher stage of agricultural products (Tomić, D., Simonović, V., 2008).
For the reason of the specificity of production and developmental features, the paper starts from the hypothesis that in Serbia, the regionalization of the production of meat (beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat) is pronounced. Even though livestock production depends on natural conditions to a lesser degree than crop production, the distinct regionality of the production of each one of the analyzed meats can be spoken about. The presence of these types of production and an increase in marketability are assumed to have a positive influence on total agricultural, i.e. the achieved level of economic development of the districts in Serbia.
The goal of the paper is to analyze the development of the market production of meat as per districts in Serbia on the basis of the three groups of features: production, capacities and the achieved level of development. On the basis of these features, the I-distance 4 was used to rank the districts in Serbia.
The results of the research study of the features of the capacities, production and development represent a good basis for implementing production regionalization and pursuing an agrarian policy towards the districts that belong to the same cluster.

Method of Work and Data Sources
By analyzing the production of meat as per districts in Serbia, it has been determined that there is a connection between the volume of meat production, the available capacities and the achieved development level.  (Devetaković, 2008).
The ranking of the districts by the I-distance method was done on the basis of the three groups of features: a) production (8, from x 1 to x 8 ): x1-beef production as per districts, x2-pigmeat production as per districts, x 3 -sheep meat production as per districts, x 4poultry meat production as per districts, x 5 -the marketability degree of beef as per districts, x 6 -the marketability degree of pigmeat as per districts, x 7 -the marketability degree of sheep meat as per districts, x 8 -the marketability degree of poultry meat as per districts; b) the capacities (7, from x 9 to x 15 ): x 9 -the number of bovines as per districts, x 10 -the number of pigs as per districts, x 11 -the number of sheep as per districts, x 12 -the number of poultry as per districts, x 13 -the number of bovines on 100 ha of arable area, x 14  On the basis of the data as per municipalities, a fact has been established that there is a significant difference between the mean value and the median calculated for the data at the district level because the analyzed features as per municipalities do not represent the normal distribution of data at the district level. The ranking of the districts according to the analyzed features has been done on the basis of the values of the median as per municipalities.
For each one of the mentioned groups of features (production, capacities, the achieved level of development), the I-distance (Ivаnоvić, B. 1972(Ivаnоvić, B. , 1973(Ivаnоvić, B. , 1977 (1) By applying a cluster analysis, the homogeneous groups of the districts in Serbia were defined from the standpoint of the volume of the production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat. The similarities of the districts according to the analyzed features of meat production were defined by the Euclidean measure of distance, and the complete-link method was applied to perform the grouping of the Serbian districts. http://ea.bg.ac.rs

Marketability of Meat Production
The volume of the production of livestock products is primarily influenced by the number and productivity of cattle. They are tightly interconnected, although their significance changes during economic development. Having in view the fact that in the postwar stages of the development of the Serbian economy the productivity of the head was low, the number of cattle had a key influence on the development of the production of livestock products. In later economic development, by the selection and regime of the feeding of the head of cattle, productivity became the decisive factor for the production of livestock products. Serbia, causes deep negative consequences in a longer time period (Mijić, at al, 2014). Therefore, it is needed to mitigate not only the variation degree, but also the consequences that arise in animal husbandry, or agricultural production.
Given the significance of bovine breeding, the reduction in the number of the bovine head in Serbia by almost one-fourth will negatively reflect on the overall animal husbandry. The negative tendency in bovine breeding is all the more complex if we bear in mind the length of the reproduction cycle and the structure of the herd.
Insufficient food production, market instability, a reduction in the export of livestock products, cattle and concentrated animal feeding stuffs price disparities and the process of the differentiation of the rural population and the presence of agricultural workforce had the biggest influence on the reduction in the number of bovines. The stated factors have a negative influence on the degree of the utilization of the production potentials of the livestock population, which are reflected in a lower volume of production, productivity and income as per employee. A greater utilization of the production potential would contribute to an increase in animal husbandry, and simultaneously to productivity and revenues in cattle breeding. These tendencies 5 are especially pronounced in the highland regions of Serbia, where cattle breeding is actually present to the greatest extent.
Not diminishing the significance of bovine breeding and pig breeding, sheep breeding in the Republic of Serbia has a special significance given the highland area, the favorable climatic conditions and available areas under meadows. For some regions (Nišava District and Pirot District), sheep breeding represents a significant, whereas sometimes the only one, source of income for farms and the population. Although it has favorable conditions for the development of sheep breeding, Serbia is deficient in some products (Wool, lamb, milk, milk products) of sheep breeding. In the world market, there has been ever-increasing demand for sheep-breeding products, which represents a chance that Serbia can use in the exporting orientation of agriculture (Ranđelović, Pavlović, 2000).
The production of meat 6 is contingent upon the number, structure and breed composition of cattle, a yield in liveweight, the volume of slaughter and foreign-trade exchange (Đorović, Tomin, 2010). In the 2001-2016 period (Table 1), the total 7 average annual production of meat was 453.0 thous. tons, with the annual oscillation of ±22.5 thous. tons and the growth rate of 1.09% per annum. Observed as per meats, the production of beef recorded a negative growth tendency, whereas the production of pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat had a positive growth tendency. The average annual production The data about the standard deviations of the analyzed production of different meats are indicative of the existence of a big annual oscillation in their production, which is negatively reflected on the stability of the offer in the national market, as well as export.
According to the data about the simple correlation coefficients 10 of the number of cattle and meat production, a conclusion can be drawn that the production of beef and sheep meat is significantly influenced by the number of cattle, whereas it is not the case with the production of pigmeat and poultry meat. The stated is indicative of the fact that the other factors, such as productivity as per head and similar factors, have greater significance for the production of pigmeat and poultry meat. According to (Vlahović, et al. 2006), the production of sheep meat depends on the number and structure of the slaughtered head, the average weight of the slaughtered head, the fatness condition 11 , the genetic characteristics of the breeds which are raised as well as the quality characteristics of meat.
The tendencies in production also had an influence on the change in the structure of meat as per kinds. Due to the negative tendencies in production, the share of beef was reduced from 21.9% (in 2001) to 15.4% (in 2016). The share of pigmeat remained unchanged, about 60.0%, whereas the share of sheep meat increased from 4.0% to 6.8% and poultry meat from 14.6% to 17.6%.
The stated data are indicative of the fact that, in the 2001-2016 period, the quantitativequalitative structure of meat production in Serbia underwent change. The total production of meat increased quantitatively by around 17.6%. Observed as per meats, the production of beef decreased, whereas the production of pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat increased. Qualitatively 12 , the tendencies in the volume of production as per meats were negative in the production of beef, pigmeat and poultry meat, whereas they were positive only in the production of sheep meat. Serbia has not yet achieved the level of development that will have an influence on change in the qualitative structure of meat production through increased consumption and demand (Milanović, Đorović, 2011).   The share of market production represents an important qualitative characteristic of every production. Market animal husbandry is guided by market economic requirements and needs. Profitable business doing according to the market criteria for production is based on contemporary technical-economic procedures and high productivity. Contrary to that, subsistence economy has a goal of meeting producers' needs and most frequently it is extensive and low-productive (Đorović, et al, 2009).
The relationship between the market and the subsistence parts of animal husbandry is also synthetically expressed by the overall relationship between the production factors and the social-economic conditions in which animal husbandry takes place. It reveals the possibilities and directions of the further development of animal husbandry. In that sense, studying the marketability of animal husbandry encompasses the measuring of the relationship between the market and the subsistence economy and finding out the tendencies in the production structure. The high level of the marketability of the production of beef in AP of Vojvodina is a result of the low consumption of beef in the nutrition of the population. Traditionally, the population of the AP of Vojvodina predominantly consumes pigmeat and poultry meat in its nutrition. Because of that, the production of poultry meat is traditionally subsistent. Favorable conditions for breeding pigs have as a consequence the volume of production that, even apart from the pronounced presence of pigmeat in the population's nutrition, enables the production of pigmeat to have a high marketability level (Lakić, Stevanović, 2003).
The average marketability of the production of meat in the Region of Šumadija and Western Serbia ranges from 30.6% for pigmeat to 66.4% for sheep meat. Yet, the three districts of the Region of Šumadija and Western Serbia (Zlatibor, Moravica and Raška) have a deficit of the market production of pigmeat and poultry meat, whereas the other fields have a surplus of the market production of all meats.
In the Region of Southern and Eastern Serbia, there is a deficit of poultry meat of -14.0%, whereas the other meats record a surplus of market production from 3.9% for pigmeat to 32.1% for beef. Also, in all the districts of this region, there is a surplus of beef. The two districts of this region (Jablanica and Pčinja Districts) have a deficit of the three meats (pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat), and the three districts have a deficit of the two meats (pigmeat and poultry meat).
According to the simple correlation coefficients, the production of pigmeat (r=0.854) has, to the greatest extent, an influence on the total meat production. It is followed by the production of sheep meat (r=0.587) and poultry meat (r=0.571), whereas the smallest influence is that of beef production (r=0.179).

Cluster Analysis of Meat Production in Serbia
The ranking of the districts in Serbia according to the production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat was done by calculating the I-distance values for the three groups of the features (production, the capacities, and the achieved level of development). The production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat is present in all of the 25 Serbian districts. However, the districts significantly differ from one another according to the features of meat production, the capacities and the achieved level of development. So, according to the features of meat production, the districts that belong to the 1-5 Rank, according to the features of the capacities belong to the Ranks from 1 to 22, and according to the features of the achieved level of development to the Ranks from 4 to 16 (Table 3). The stated indicates that the production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat is not directly related to the features of the capacities and the achieved level of development.
With the exception of Belgrade District, as the most developed in Serbia, the other districts that are ranked the lowest with respect to the feature of meat production are also ranked low with respect to the feature of the capacities (Ranks 14-23) and the achieved level of development (Ranks 18-25). In the dendrogram (Figure 2), the four clusters of the districts of the production of beef, pigmeat, sheep meat and poultry meat in Serbia are identified. The first cluster is the most numerous and encompasses 13 districts, the second cluster-six districts, the third-four districts and the fourth-two districts.
The first cluster consists of two sub-clusters. The first sub-cluster encompasses three districts: two from within the Serbia-North Region and one from the Serbia-South Region. According to the features of meat production, the districts of this cluster belong to the Ranks

Conclusion
Through meat production, crop raising inputs are also valorized into animal husbandry as a higher stage of finalization. The value of meat production is a result of the multiplied value of investment in animal husbandry. The growth of the productivity of meat production represents a broader synthetic factor, whose degree of influence is determined by all the factors that are related to the development of cattle breeding and represent the factors of beef production. Therefore, cattle breeding may well be expected to have a greater influence on the development of agriculture. Having in view the structure of meat production in Serbia (beef 20%, pigmeat 60%, sheep meat 5% and poultry meat 15%), the production of pigmeat is the only one that can be expected to have an influence on the development of agriculture as a field. The number of pigs in the observed period, however, was significantly reduced, which reflected on the stagnation of pigmeat production.
Qualitatively observed, the tendencies in the volume of meat production as per kinds of meat are negative in the production of beef, pigmeat and poultry meat, whereas they are only positive in the production of sheep meat. The stated indicates that there is still a low level of the living standard of the Serbian population, which negatively reflects on the qualitative changes in the structure of meat production.
By the analysis of meat production as per kinds of meat, the level of achieved economic development and the share of agriculture in the economic structure, no fact was established across the Serbian districts that there is a high interdependence between meat production and the achieved level of economic development. However, when the farms on which meat production represents the dominant or the only one part of the source of income, as well as the districts in which this type of production is present more than the other types, are concerned, meat production has a great influence on the creation of agricultural revenue, i.e. the GDP of the economy as a whole.
The accelerated economic development of a country, an increase in real salaries, the advancement of agricultural production, an increase in demand for livestock products, as well as the export of livestock products, enable the creation of socialeconomic and institutional conditions for a faster and more intensive development of animal husbandry. The application of contemporary technology has increasingly been assuming ever-greater proportions in animal husbandry, which is increasingly turning it into industrialized production. That has an influence on the transformation of cattle breeding into an intensive and the most significant branch of agricultural production.