INFLUENCE OF INPUT PRICES ON FUTURE APPLE PRODUCTION

This paper analyzes the impact of human labor prices, mineral fertilizers, pesticides and oil on future apple production, based on ten-year data from 10 surveyed apple producers in the Republic of North Macedonia. The results showed that the prices of all inputs (except oil) in the future period (until 2029) will rise, and that the value of production will decrease. This, in turn, will directly affect the reduction of surface volume and apple production.


Introduction
Agricultural production in North Macedonia is organized on 1,266,008ha during 2017. Of that, 1.3% are orchards, or 14,543 ha, mainly (87.9%) from individual farms. Orchards account for about 3% of the country's total arable land.
According to the data from the State Statistical Office (SSO), the total number of fruit trees in 2010 was 8,315,535 trees, and in 2019 -9,692,759, which represents an increase of 11.7%. SSO does not provide data for all fruit crops, but only for: cherries, sour cherries, apricots, quinces, pears, apples, plums, peaches, walnuts and almonds. Here, apples dominate with 54%, in 2010 and with 50.5%, in 2019.
The average area under apples in the past ten years (2010-2019) is 5,340 ha. Here, the dominating municipality with almost 65% is Resen. Within the total area in the municipality of Resen (average 3,470 ha), the most planted varety of apples (over 60%) is the variety Ajdared (Municipality of Resen: Investor Guide, 2014). This variety is followed by planting the varieties Golden Delicious, Mutsu and Red Delicious with over 10%, Jonagold and Granny Smith with 3% each, as well as the varieties Fuji, Gala, Rubystar, Hapki, etc., with over 2%.
However, the analyzed data showed that there is a relatively large fluctuation in the research period, both on the surface and the total number of fruits, as well as the total production and average yields of apples. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of future apple production in Macedonia, based on the movement of prices of major inputs,.

Materials and methods
For the realization of the set goal, we used official data from state institutions: State Statistical Office (SSO), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy (MAFWE), Agency for Financial Support of Agriculture and Rural Development (AFSARD), as well as data from 10 surveyed individual agricultural holdings in the country, mainly (six holdings) from the municipality of Resen. We also used data (prices) from the archives of private companies that have been selling mineral fertilizers and pesticides in this time period.
The research refers to the period from 2010 to 2019 as a ground (base), and the forecast is made until 2029.
We performed the data processing with several mathematical-statistical methods: minimum, maximum, average values, exponential trend, comparative method and other methods, common for such agro-economic research.

Movement of the quantity and prices of labor
According to the statements of the surveyed agricultural holdings, an average of 1,500 h of human labor is consumed in the process of apple production. This consumption depends, primarily on the degree of realization of the usual production technology, which in turn ranges in the interval difference of 12.7 hours between the minimum and the maximum.
The research has shown that the price of labor ranges from a minimum of 71.00 MKD/h, in 2010 to a maximum of 113.00 MKD/h in 2019 or there is an interval difference of 42 MKD/h (Table 1). As it can be seen from the data shown in Table 1, the cost of human labor is constantly increasing. Such an increase in the average price of human labor will cause a continuous increase in the future, until 2029 ( Figure 1). Here, the increase is 38% of the average price.
The increase in the price of the human labor is a result of the fact that the number and quality of the labor force in Macedonia is continuously decreasing in the current period. This is primarily due to migration from rural to urban areas, but also due to emigration abroad.

Movement of the quantity and prices of mineral fertilizers
The mineral complex granular fertilizer, composed of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in the proportions of 8:16:24, is used in an average amount of 350 kg/ha for apples. The research has shown that the prices have been relatively stable ( Figure 2), with 70.00 MKD/kg in the first 6 years (2010-2015) and then the prices decreased to 65.00 MKD/kg: Predictions are that the decrease will continue in the period that follows.
In the technological process of apple production, the farmers use the so-called crystalline fertilizer NPK + Mg (6: 14: 12: 14), in an average amount of 30 kg/ha. It is easily soluble in water, and efficiency is increased if used with the drip system.
The prices of the crystalline fertilizers, compared to the granulated one, were continuously increasing (Figure. 3). The average price was 167.00 MKD/kg. The trend shows that the increase will continue in the future, when it will reach 187.00 MKD/kg.

Movement of the quantity and prices of pesticides
At an average pesticide consumption of 3.0 kg/ha, the average price was MKD 1,257.90 MKD/kg. The increase of prices will continue in the next period ( Figure 4).

Figure 4 -Pesticide price trend
Source: Our calculations based on data from the private agricultural pharmacies The average annual increase will be 0.85 MKD/kg, and at the end of the period (2029), the average price will reach 1,334.00 MKD/kg.

Movement of the quantity and prices of oil
Oil, in addition to human energy, is the main energy source for performing mechanized work processes in apple production. Here, the average annual consumption is 162 l/ha MKD/l MKD/l. It is generally known that oil is a so-called stock market product. Therefore, the price depends on the movement of oil supply on global stock exchanges. For that reason, in our country, the price of oil in the past ten years has been moving in the interval difference of 14.00 MKD/l, i.e. from a minimum of 48.00 MKD/l. in 2016 to 72.00 MKD/l. in 2012 ( Tab. 1).
In general, the price of oil will decrease in the next period, so that in 2029 it will be 60.90 MKD/l ( Figure 5).

Movement of total costs in apple production
The research has shown that the total cost of apple production is increasing year by year ( Figure 6). The cost ranged in the interval of 42,584 MKD/ha. The upward trend will continue until the end of 2029, when the total production costs would amount to 199,201.00 MKD/ha. This increase will also negatively affect the profitability of apple production.

Movement of value and income in apple production
It is known that the value of production is a function of the amount of produced quantity of apples and the purchase, ie market prices. Here, we take the purchase prices that are relevant for this purpose, because they are determined on the base of the total value and the total quantity of purchased apples, separately for human consumption and processing. Market prices, on the other hand, are determined regardless of the quality of apples.
The statistical data ( Table 2) showed that the average of achieved yields in our country was 21,414 kg/ha in the past ten years. Of that, 86% class I II, ie. apples for human consumption and 14% apples for processing, ie class III.
However, the value of production in the past period ranged from 150,718.00 MKD/ha in 2017 to 430,922.00 MKD/ha in 2018, i.e. in a relatively wide range of 280,204.00 MKD/ha.  Figure 7. Trend of the total value of production Source: Our calculations based on data from the State Statistical Office of RNM Therefore, in order to increase the income of the family farms that produce apples, the state subsidizes that production. Nevertheless, the total revenues from apple production in the future will move downwards (Chart 8).

Conclusions
Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. The price of labor is continuously increasing due to the fact that the number and quality of labor in North Macedonia is continuously decreasing in the current period. This is primarily due to migration from rural to urban areas, but also due to emigration abroad.