Fertility rates in Tešanj Municipality ( Bosnia and Herzegovina ) in the second half of the 20 th and the beginning of 21 st century

In the second half of the 20th century, demographic changes of the Tešanj municipality developed in accordance with the complex socioeconomic circumstances in this area. In the period from 1953 to 1991 the population of Tešanj municipality increased by the average annual population growth rate of 1.5%. The biggest impact on demographic trends had the positive and relatively high rates of natural increase. The natural population change of Tešanj municipality in this period was the result of the effect of biological, socioeconomic, psychological and other factors. In this period fertility significantly influenced the rates of natural increase of municipal population. The gradual decline process of the fertility rates, which has started in the 1960s and still lasts, reflected on the natural population change and population growth rates of Tešanj population. Additional decrease of the fertility and birth rates, as well as moderate increase of mortality rate was observed. This occurred due to the decrease of the total population, as well as the adverse socioeconomic circumstances after 1995, which resulted in low natural


Introduction
The Tešanj municipality is located in northern Bosnia and Herzegovina in the river valleys of Bosnia and Usora.This municipality administratively belongs to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Zenica-Doboj Canton (Figure 1).It covers the total area of 163km2 and has population of about 47,000 (Population Census 2013, Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
Importance of fertility for population of Tešanj municipality reflects in the fact that the demographic development of this region greatly depended on fertility.In terms of low mortality rates, fertility represented crucial reproduction component and increase of the Tešanj population.Furthermore, fertility is greatly significant for the demographic development of the Tešanj municipality, especially due to their influence on other demographic processes and changes, as well as many economic and social changes (age dependency ratio, age structure of a population, the level of investments intended for the expanded reproduction and etc.).Biological, social, psychological and other factors had an effect on the fertility rates of Tešanj municipality population.Biological factors determined population's fertility levels.When it comes to the social factors, in the second half of the 20th century, higher fertility rates of the Tešanj population were a consequence primarily of the underdeveloped economy, low life standard, high illiteracy rates and low percentage of highly educated women and etc. (Bošnjović, 1990).When it comes to the psychological factors it is important to emphasize some psychological variables which are connected to attitudes of individuals in regard to the size of family, as well as psychological variables which are related to personal attitudes, motivations or personality characteristics (Rašević, 1972;Huinink, et. al., 2014).
Due to the process of industrialization during 1970s in the Tešanj municipality the percentages of economically active population as well as the degree of educated people in Tešanj have increased which resulted in decline of the fertility rates in period up until 1991.After 1995 due to the adverse economic, political, social and other circumstances, the fertility rates kept the declining tendency, which negatively reflected on the demographic flows in this municipality.

Research methodology
Regarding the fertility research in the Tešanj municipality area, main sources of the data came out of the demographic (vital) statistics and censuses of Bosnian population.Due to the fact that the results of the first post-war census of Bosnian population from 2013 have not been published yet, the assessments by the Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Federal statistical office, and data from the registry office of Tešanj municipality are used.
The analysis of the Tešanj municipality population fertility is done by calculating the general fertility rate which represents the first reliable indicator of the fertility analysis, that is, the actual fertility rate.This fertility rate of Tešanj population was obtained from the quotient of the total number of births per 1000 women in their reproductive age.In order to get more accurate fertility analysis of Tešanj population, specific fertility rates have been determined, which were cal-culated from the ratio of births by 1000 women of specific age (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999).
Total fertility rate (TFR) is considered to be the best indicator of fertility (actual fertility rate) in the demographic statistics.It implies the probable number of children a woman will have if she lives through all the reproductive ages and follows the age-specific fertility rates of a given time.This rate of the Tešanj municipality population was calculated from the following pattern (Nejašmić, 2005): The gross reproduction rate (GRR) represents number of daughters expected to be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women (usually 1000) under condition that not a single woman dies during childbearing years and that the same schedule of age-specific rates is applied throughout the childbearing years.In respect to the fact that data about the structure of liveborn children by gender are not available, and in order to calculate the gross reproduction rate of Tešanj population, a pattern which takes into consideration all live-born children is used.The gained sum has been multiplied by 0.485 which stands for the sex ratio at birth (more male than female births) in a longer period of time (Breznik, 1972).In order to better comprehend the fertility of female population in the Tešanj municipality area, a survey was conducted among women in fertile age.The survey was conducted in June 2010 and it contained 26 questions.This survey involved 172 women of various age and education level (1.3% of total number of women in fertile age) from 28 rural, 2 suburban and one urban settlement of the Tešanj municipality.The aim of the survey was to determine whether the family planning is present among surveyed women in Tešanj municipality.

General fertility rate
General fertility rates of the Tešanj population were considerably high up until 1970s.In 1961 the general fertility rate amounted to 176.7‰ and it was among the highest rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina.After 1961, the general fertility rates had declining tendency: in 1981 it amounted to 87.3‰, and in 1991 it was 69.9‰.Nevertheless, the general fertility rates of Tešanj population were higher than the general fertility rates of the entire Bosnian population.In both observed areas the general fertility rates were in significant decline.According to the data by Agency for statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Federal Bureau for Statistics, in 2007 the general fertility rate amounted to 39.5‰ in the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina, whereas in Tešanj municipality it amounted to 39.2‰.
However, it is important to emphasize that the general fertility rate is strongly influenced by the population age structure, which means that the comparison is not most favourable, because the age structure of women in fertile age vary from population to population.This reflects directly on the potential fecundity of certain population, and with that fertility as well.Therefore, in order to have more precise insight in fertility of Tešanj municipality, the specific fertility rates or fertility rates by age of women are calculated.

Specific fertility rates
The age specific fertility rates of female population are calculated by five-year age groups for Tešanj municipality and Bosnia and Herzegovina for years 1981, 1991 and 2007.
The highest fertility rates from 1961 in Tešanj municipality have been marked in the female age groups 25-29 years old (279.9‰)and 20-24 years old (219.7‰).In the following decades there was a decline in specific fertility rates of this and other age groups as well.Thus, the highest fertility rate in 1981 was in the age group 20-24 years old and it amounted to 197.3‰, and in 1991 in the same age group it amounted to 172.2‰.Based on the presented data from period from 1961 to 1991, it is obvious that the fertility rate in the Tešanj municipality for the age group 45-49 years old has significantly increased from 24.6‰ to 51.3‰, and in the age group 15-20 years old, the fertility rate dropped from 8.5‰ to 0.0‰, furthermore in age group 20-24 it dropped from 219.7‰ to 54.3‰, and etc. (Table 1).
The above mentioned changes in the fluctuation of the age specific fertility rates have been caused by the decline in the influence of tradition.Family is being reorganized, status of children has changed, and desire for better life standard, the rise of the median age of first marriage (couples marry later in life) and additionally the average age of mothers has also increased.Mean age at childbearing in European countries has started to increase more significantly since 1970s, in addition during mid-1990s the mean age at childbearing approached late twenties (from 24.3 in Bulgaria to 30.2 in Ireland) (Bongaarts, 2002).Similar trends of age specific fertility rates fluctuations are observable in Bosnian population as well, however with a minor difference -in this period the age specific fertility rates of female population of Tešanj municipality were higher in comparison to the same rates for entire Bosnia and Herzegovina.Higher general fertility rate and age specific fertility rates of Tešanj population are a result of more favourable population age structure, as well as adverse socioeconomic conditions in this municipality.Furthermore, higher fertility rates in Tešanj municipality are a consequence of the fact that it was fairly a traditional environment with larger part of unemployed and uneducated female population in the total population of this municipality (Kadušić, 2011).In period between 1961 and 1991 the total fertility rate (TFR) in Tešanj municipality fluctuated from 3.599 to 2.080 and in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 3.812 to 1.706.Higher total fertility rate means that the fecundity of women is higher on average and vice versa.Furthermore, it indicates whether the population sub-replacement is secured.In order to insure the population sub-replacement the total fertility rate would have to amount to an average of 2.1 children per woman in her fertile age (Nejašmić, 2005).It is well known that insufficient number of births represents the main cause of decline in natural population growth, and ultimately the main cause of depopulation and expressed aging process (Živković, 2009).
In second half of the 20th century in Tešanj municipality, the declining tendency of age specific fertility rates, as well as general and total fertility rates were caused by the start of more intense industrialization and urbanization since 1960s onward.In addition, the literacy level and economic activity of population (especially women) has increased.It is known for a fact, that these processes significantly affect other socioeconomic changes which then reflect on the fertility level in certain area (Akrap, 2011;Čipin, 2011;A. d'Addio, et. al., 2005).Consequently, in the Tešanj municipality, these three processes affected the increase of economically active people in non-agricultural activities, rise of percentage of qualified workers, increased number of economically active women in non-agricultural activities, and increased percentage of women with educational attainment.Thus it led to change of woman's position in family and society, increase of the general level of education and cost of childcare.Furthermore, health care has improved, the average life expectan-cy has increased, the so called birth-control has developed, and pregnancy prevention has been enhanced by the birth-control.Besides the above mentioned, mostly socioeconomic factors that had an effect on level of fertility in the Tešanj municipality as well as the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina, there were also biological and psychological factors.The fertility of Tešanj population was influenced by socio-psychological factors which are connected to the processes that determine biological reproduction norms in a single society (influence on the individual attitudes towards number of children, and these attitudes derive from the individual's relationship with his/her cousins, friends, neighbours and other members of the same social group).Additionally, the fertility was influenced by the factors which ensue from personal psychological characteristics of the individual (capability to give birth, sense of security, attitude towards sex life, strong desire to expand family, health status of individuals and etc.).
After 1996, in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as the Tešanj municipality, a declining trend of age specific fertility rates continued as a consequence of the specific socioeconomic and other conditions (Table 2).
In comparison to 1981 and 1991, women in age group 25-29 years old gave birth to a high number of live-born babies.In addition, it was observed that the fertility rates have significantly decreased.In Tešanj municipality in 2007, the highest fertility rate was in the age group 25-29 years old and it amounted to 112.0‰, whereas the lowest was in the age group 45-49 years old and not a single birth was recorded within this age group.
If age specific fertility rates of female population of Tešanj from 2007 are compared with the age specific It is also important to remark that up until 2007 the total fertility rate in Tešanj municipality dropped to 1.347, and in Bosnia and Herzegovina it dropped to 1.174, which means that the population sub-replacement in these areas is not secured.It is also observable that in the last several decades the total fertility rates dropped in many countries of the world, especially in the developing countries (Dribe, at. al, 2014).At the global level, the total fertility rate dropped from 6.0 in 1960s to 2.9 in period between 2000 and 2005.The most recent estimates assume that the fertility rates will continue to drop in the transition countries (Bongaarts, 2008).Considering the level of socioeconomic development after 1996, and in comparison to the neighbouring as well as other developed countries of Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Tešanj municipality have low total fertility rates.According to the data from 2007, Bosnia and Herzegovina had the lowest total fertility rates in region.For instance, in 2007 the total fertility rate in Albania and Serbia amounted to 1.8, in Montenegro 1.6, in Croatia and Macedonia 1.4 and in Slovenia it amounted to 1.3.Whilst, some highly developed European countries had even higher total fertility rates in relation to Bosnia and Herzegovina and neighbouring countries.In 2007 the total fertility rate in Iceland amounted to 2.1, in France 2.0, in Denmark, Sweden and Norway it amounted to 1.9 (Population Reference Bureau, Washington DC, 2007).
After the war in 1995, low total fertility rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other south-eastern European countries were a consequence of different factors.Most important factors are demographic war loses, changed post-war political, social and economic conditions as well as the general factors which effect the levels of fertility in other countries of the world too (increased level of education and economic activ-ity of women, including the modern role of men and women in the society, as well as their aspiration for education, employment, more active role in the social life, including absence of adequate measures concerning population politics and etc.Even though the marriage and children are still high at the life's priority list, youth population sets some different also important goals) (Rašević, 2004).
Divorce rates and marriage rates significantly affected the fertility of Tešanj population.The importance of marriage for the reproduction of population is reflected through the median age of first marriage and the length of marriage because, for majority of populations, most births come from marriage (Billari, at al., 2004).Median age of first marriage is also among most important modifiers of fertility rates in the Tešanj municipality area.Early entering into marriage is usually connected to high fertility rates.Thus, the fertility levels within one population can be highly influenced by delaying marriage (Đurđev, 2004;Rašević, 1971).It is also important to mention that in case of birth control prevalence and family planning, the importance of the median age of first marriage is less significant.That is because, in this case, the level of fertility is influenced by the accepted social norms on the total number of children (which is usually quite low).In relation to this, it is not necessary to emphasize the importance of divorce rates on the level of fertility rates since most children are born to married parents.The crude marriage rates of Tešanj municipality and Bosnian population in period between 1953 and 1991 are presented in the Table 3.
In period between 1953 and 1991 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the crude marriage rates dropped from 10.9‰ to 6.5‰, while in the Tešanj municipality they were usually higher.However, there was a slight difference in certain periods when there was a fluctuation of the rates.Thus, for instance, in period between 1953 and 1976, the crude marriage rates had the rising tendency.After 1976 the same rates started to decline and in 1991 they had the value of 12.1‰.The divorce rates in period between 1953 and 1991 had different values with oscillations in certain years.Therefore the highest divorce rate in the Tešanj municipality was recorded in 1962, and it amounted to 211.6‰, and the lowest divorce rate was in 1977 and it amounted to 50.5‰ (Table 3).In the table 4, data about the number of marriages and divorces, as well as the crude marriage rates and divorce rates among married in Bosnia and Herzegovina, The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, The Zenica-Doboj Canton and the Tešanj municipality in 1996 have been presented.Since 1996, in the Tešanj municipality a decline in number of marriages has been recorded, furthermore the median age of first marriage increased.However there have not been significant changes in the number of divorces.The highest divorce rate was recorded in 1999 and it amounted to 153.3‰, and the lowest was recorded in 2004 and it amounted to 37.8‰ (Table 4).

Reproduction of female population in the Tešanj municipality
Sub-replacement of Tešanj municipality population can be monitored by calculating different indicators among which the most important are gross and net reproduction rates.The gross reproduction rate in the Tešanj municipality fluctuated from 1.745 in 1961 to 1.009 in 1991, and in 2007 it amounted to mere 0.653.In the same period, the gross reproduction rate of the Bosnian female population, in comparison to the Tešanj municipality, was a bit lower (except for 1961) and it fluctuated from 1.849 in 1961 to 0.827 in 1991 and in 2007 it amounted to 0.569.
The calculated gross reproduction rates indicate how many children will a single female, born in 1961, 1991 or 2007, have during her fertile period.If the gross reproduction rate is bellow 1.02 than the population subreplacement is not guaranteed (Nejašmić, 2005).However, in reality, the number of children, which a single female will have through her fertile period, is going to be lower than the number derived from the gross reproduction rate, which, unlike net reproduction rate, does not take into consideration the mortality of female population in their fertile age.In this paper, the net reproduction rate of female population in the Tešanj municipality area will not be presented, because mortality rate charts do not exist.However, based on the gross reproduction rates data, which have the declining trend, it can be assumed that the net reproduction rates of female population will decrease as well.

The results of a survey on woman's opinion regarding family planning in the Tešanj municipality area
The survey involved 172 women from 28 rural, 2 suburban and one urban settlement in the Tešanj municipality.Out of the total number of surveyed women, 24.4% live in the urban area, 54.1% in rural area and 20.9% of surveyed women live in suburban areas.One For the majority of both married and single women the ideal number of children is two, and same or similar motives and reasons for giving birth to more children occur in most cases.According to 121 women, love towards children is the most important motive for having more children, followed by the importance of expanding the family (51 women), the desire to extend their family (45 women), feeling of security in old age, (25 women), desire to have both female and male children (11 women), patriotic reasons (1 woman) and other motives (11 women).The reasons for not fulfilling the desired number of children, according to most surveyed women are the financial situation (88 women), biological or health-related reasons (57 women), struggle of raising children (36 women), unstable political situation in the country (30 women), unsolved housing situation (24 women), professional responsibilities and carrier (16 women), psychological reasons (8 women) and other reasons (20 women).
In this survey women are asked for their attitudes towards marriage and children.Most women have positive attitudes towards marriage and children, regardless of whether they live in rural or urban area, or whether they have children or not, and regardless of their educational attainment.Thus most women answered that marriage is completely normal and expected stage of our lives, that marriage should not be postponed until midlife (30 years old and above), and that marriage is a sanctity and should be nourished and maintained, and that the divorce is the last option.When it comes to family, most agree that, in one's life, it is practically irreplaceable, that is it worth all the commitment and sacrifice, that children give our lives purpose and that they are the greatest gift.However, 36% of the surveyed women believe that a modern family cannot be based on the traditional values, 30.2% do not agree with this opinion, 11.6% is impartial, and the rest do not have an opinion about this topic.
Even though the above mentioned data was obtained from a small sample, it shows us that family planning is present in the area of Tešanj municipality and that different factors influence that planning.Most women stated that poor financial situation is the main factor that influences the number of children that they have or wish to have.This is despite the fact that 73.3% of surveyed woman have permanent employment, 41.9% have spouses who also have permanent employment and resolved residential issue (79.7% of women have their own houses, and 6.4% their own apartments), 133 women or 77.3% evaluated their social status as average.All these simply indicate that besides the biological and socioeconomic factors, the psychological factors have a great influence as well, furthermore the economic or housing reasons, even though not crucial factors have been highlighted by many surveyed women.

Conclusion
In the second half of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century, the fertility represented the main determinant of the natural population change, as well as the total population change of the Tešanj municipality population.In period between 1953 and 1991 the processes of industrialization, deagrarization and urbanization have caused the need for qualified workforce, which led to the improvement in educational and economic structure of Tešanj municipality population.In this period, there was a decrease in the total number of illiterate population, while the number of highly educated and economically active citizens has increased; there was an increase in the number of women with educational attainment and rise in the number of economically active women within non-agricultural activities.A change occurred in the status of woman in family, the birth-control has expanded, the median age of first marriage has increased and etc.All these caused the decline of fertility rates in the Tešanj municipality.In period after 1995, in addition to the mentioned factors, the levels of fertility rates have been influenced by the adverse economic, social and political circumstances.Therefore, in period between 1961 and 1991 the general fertility rates of the Tešanj municipality declined from 176‰ to 69.9‰ and in 2007 it amounted to 39.2‰.The total fertility rate in period between 1961 and 2007 dropped from 3.599 to 1.347, and the gross reproduction rate declined from 1.745 to 0.653.The survey conducted among women in their fertile age in the Tešanj municipality showed that in this region, the family planning is actual, whereas among most women the ideal number of children is two, and the main factor, which affects the ideal number of children as well as the actual number of children, is the poor financial situation.Thus, in this municipality, the decrease of the specific fertility rates is a consequence of biological, socioeconomic factors, as well as the psychological factors.Therefore, it is necessary to take measures regarding the expansionist population policy, in order to prevent further decline of fertility and thus thwart the negative demographic flows.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Geographical location of Tešanj municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Table 1 .
Age specific fertility rates by five-year age groups inBosn1991nd Herzegovina and Tešanj municipality  in 1981 and1991 Note: TFR (total fertility rate), GRR' (the gross reproduction rate)Source: 1981 and 1991 population Censuses in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic statistical office, Sarajevo.

Table 2 .
Age specific fertility rates of female population of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Tešanj municipality in 2007 rates of female population of the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina within the same age group, it is visible that the rates on the level of the entire country are lower within every age group except the age group 20-24 years old.

Table 3 .
Crude marriage rates and crude divorce rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Tešanj municipality in period from 1953 to 1991 Source: 1953 and 1991 population Censuses in Bosnia and Herzegovina.Federal statistical office, Belgrade; Statistical bulletin 48 (1979)  and 143 (1986), Republic statistical office, Sarajevo.

Table 4 .
Crude marriage rates and divorce rates among married in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Zenica-Doboj Canton and Tešanj municipality from the year 1996