CONTEMPORARY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN SETELLMENTS ALONG THE ADMINISTRATIVE LINE IN SERBIA TOWARDS AUTONOMOUS PROVINCE OF KOSOVO AND METOHIJA

The settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija had a very turbulent demographic changes in the past. These changes have influenced the present. In this paper we investigated the depopulation process of this area which is intensified with the political instability, social and economic changes. The main goal of this research was to analyze the causes and effects in the reduction of the number of inhabitants, as well as the possibility of revitalizing the rural settlements of a given area. To obtain the desired results, we analyzed the existing literature and statistical data, used comparative and historical methods as well as implemented the field surveys. The application of the SWOT analysis to the researched area have showed us the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats that can effect the process of revitalization of the village.


INTRODUCTION
Immigration in Europe from 1950 to the present day has increased by nearly two million people.Due to demographic changes many countries become ethnically diverse (Coleman, 2015).According to the political, economic and social changes during the 1990s and 2000s, population of the 29 former communist countries of Europe and Asia had a significant demographic changes.This includes a sudden drop in the birth rate, increased mortality and migration of large-scale, accompanied by large flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.In most countries in the region such demographic trends have led to the decreasment and rapid aging of the population (Heleniak, 2015).
Mountain ranges on the Balkan Peninsula were appealing for a number of conquests from prehistory to the recent wars (Darlas, 1995).In the last 550 years due to frequent wars, the Balkan peninsula remained the least developed area in Europe.In the 19th century the Balkan nations regained their independence, and after World War II until 1989, some countries of the Balkan peninsula were under the communist regime.During the 1990s, there was a civil war in the Balkan region, which led to the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia (Skoulikidis et al., 2009).There have been frequent ethnic conflicts between Serbs and Albanians in Kosmet, (Bhaumik et al., 2006), which ended with NATO Alliance air strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia on the 24th March 1999.Alleged Albanian bullying, threats and intimidation of Serb school children and families meant thousands felt forced to sell their properties at depressed prices and migrate (Nelles, 2005).Thus, the beginning of the 21st century is marked by a large number of refugees and internally displaced persons from the territory of the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija (Marinović, 1999).Then from settlements along the administrative line between Serbia and Kosovo and Metohija have happened a sudden migration of the population towards the central parts of Serbia.
The administrative line in Serbia towards the province of Kosovo and Metohija is 352 km long and it includes 97 rural settlements.The natural, historical and political factors caused the demographic changes of these settlements, as well as geographic and traffic position.This area is isolated from the dynamic changes in other regions, because of its position in the southern part of the Republic, along the administrative line to the province.In the past, the hilly and mountainous terrain of the area, with an altitude from 400 m to 2100 m served for harboring the population.Numerous archaeological studies indicate that the area was inhabited in late Neolithic and early Bronze Age.Serbs were the main population in the Middle Ages what testify numerous hill forts and Turkish census from the 15 th and 16 th century.The settling of the Turkish population in the region came after the Battle of Kosovo, and the rule of the Turks caused many population movements in Balkans.After 1833, the biggest part of today's administrative line area was the border between Serbia and Turkey (Jotić & Vukojičić, 2004).The turmoil of the 18th century changed the structure of the population.The unstable political and economic situation in these mountainous areas has caused migration of the Serbian population in the 19th century, which continued in the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century (RZS).According to (Cvijić, 1922) in this area there were a crossing of the two migratory current from the Dinaric Alps and Kosovo-Metohija.The causes for migration were diverse, the population moved from Kosovo and Metohija due to the Turkish and Albanian terror, and from the area of northern Montenegro and Eastern Herzegovina, because of arid land (Cvijić, 2010).The population were engaged in agriculture, livestock, mining (in the Kopaonik area) and timber harvesting.

RESEARCH AREA
The area along the administrative line of Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija includes 11 municipalities (basic administrative-territorial units of the Republic of Serbia), divided into five districts.In the research area, there are 97 settlements, 21 of them are located in the municipality of Kursumlija, 15 settlements are on the territory of Novi Pazar, 12 belong to the municipality of Medvedja, 11 to Bujanovac, 10 to Raska and Presevo, 8 to Brus, 6 to Tutin, 2 to Leskovac and one settlement to municipalities of Lebane and Vranje.
Settlements in this area are of scattered type, mostly mountainous (above 1000 m), scattered around the valley sides of the river and high mountain meadows (Miletić et al., 2009).Settlements in the Preševo valley have the lowest altitude, about 400 m.On the highest al On the highest altitude were a settlements in the municipality of Tutin (2100 m), Raska and Brus (up to 1900 m) and Kursumlija (1700 m).All settlements are divided into villages and mahalas (Table 1).Beside the investigation of the territorial expanse of settlements in the research area, we also analyzed the changes of population, size, number of households, the average number of members and the structure and density of households.
Based on all this, the aim of this paper is to point to the demographic changes in present time.

MATERIAL AND METHODS
The methodology in this paper is according to the subject, objectives and tasks of the research.Field studies are carried through direct and systematic observation, as well as conducting surveys and interviews.The historical method contents the use of literature, written documents and other archive material and presents us knowledge about the past of this area, explains the current situation and helps to give a forecasts of future development.Data were collected in public institutions and in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.We used the cartographic method for representation of spatial distribution of settlements along the administrative line to Kosmet.The SWOT analysis is applied to identify key strengths and weaknesses, the opportunities for development of the research area, as well as the threats for the process of revitalization of these settlements.In the municipalities of Bujanovac and Presevo, the census in 2011.was not fully implemented because the residents refused to be registered.According to this list, in the 76 settlements along the administrative line lived 5802 inhabitants, 16,652 less than in 1948.During this period a big population decreasment was registered, due to which large empty spaces were created along the administrative line toward the province.The smallest decreasment, of 19.3% was recorded in the villages of Tutin municipality and the largest in the municipality of Vranje, 90.8%, while in Lebane was recorded a decreasment of 89.4%, in Medvedja 89.3%, and in Kursumlija 88.4%.The total number of population was increased after the World War II until 1961.(Table 2).Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Population in settlements at higher altitudes lives exclusively from animal husbandry and forest exploitation.In the valleys and valley extensions people mostly live from farming and wood processing (sawmills).Settlements have received electricity in the second half of the 20th century, they are supplied with water from the local springs.Most of the settlements remained without four-year schools, local communities and shops ((Milinčić, 2001), (Milinčić & Rosić, 2001), (Šaćirović, 2002)).
The development of the industry since the 60s of the last century caused the decreasment of the population, and the last inter-census period marks the settlements without inhabitants (Smilov Laz -Novi Pazar, Tačevac and Vukojevac -Kursumlija and Gare -Presevo).
There is a large number of small settlements along the administrative line of Serbia and the province, of up to 100 inhabitants, scattered and spilled type.The number of such settlements has increased 30 times (from 2 to 61).Settlements without inhabitants were registered, too (4 settlements).The multiplication of such settlements, due to depopulation creates demographic voids (Miličić, 2003).The number of settlements with more than 1,000 residents in a given period declines (from 7 to 6) (Table 3).Reducing the number of households, is followed with the reduce of the average number of members per household.In settlements along the administrative line towards Kosovo and Metohija average number of household members decrease from 1953 to 2002, from 7.0 to 4.3.The average number of household members is different in municipalities.In Tutin, in comparison to 1953, the average number of members decreased for 2.2 members till 2011, in Novi Pazar for 5.1, in Raska for 4.3, in Brus for 4.8, in Kursumlija for 4.5, in Medvedja for 4.3, in Lebane for 5.1, in Leskovac, Vranje 4.4 and 4.3, and in 2002 in Bujanovac the number of members per household decreased for 0.7 compared to the year 1953 and for 2.4 members compared to 1961 in Presevo. he decrease from the average of 4 members per household indicates the disappearance of patriarchal families, the so-called family cooperatives (Table 5).In 2002.the settlements in the research area were characterized by a family of six or more members (29.0%), 2 members (20.4%) and 1 member (13.9%).The largest number of settlements in 2011 is characterized by a family of 2 members (27.3%), 1 member (25.9%) and of 6 or more members (14.8%).The number of households of 1 member increased (by 12.0%) and of 2 members ( by 6.9%), too.The number of members per household varies by municipality.Villages in Tutin (39.5%),Bujanovac (54.0%) and Presevo (29.0%), are dominating with 6 or more members per household, there were households of 2 members in Novi Pazar (33.5%), Bruce (30.9%),Kursumlija (34.6%),Medvedja (32.6%),Leskovac (33.9%) and Vranje (35.3%), and 1 member in Raska (33.1%) and Lebane (42.6%).Changes in the structure of households (by number of members) is due to the movement of younger people to urban centers, where in search for the employee they established their own families, while in the countryside only elderly households remained (Vukoičić, 2014).
The process of change in population and number of households in the settlements along the administrative line of Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija, was followed by the changes in population density.The overall population density in the research area increased in the post-war period from 3.3 ft./Km 2 to 3.7 ft./Km 2 .From 1961 to 2011, the population density was in steady decline.Differences in the change of population in municipalities along the administrative line towards Kosmet, have influenced the different density.The highest population density was in settlements Bujanovac (7.0%) and Presevo (3.2%) and in 7 municipalities (Kursumlija, Medvedja, Lebane, Leskovac, Vranje and Tutin) the density was less than 1 ft./Km 2 , while Raska had 1.3 inh./km 2 , and Bruce 1.5 ft./km 2 .

Results of research survey of households in rural areas, as potential carriers of the future economic development
In summer 2015, we conducted research in 315 households with 512 people in 29 rural settlements of Kursumlija and Brus along the administrative line of Serbia towards province of Kosovo and Metohija.The study consists of a questionnaire containing 20 different questions to which respondents choose one of the few offered answers or gives a short responses according to their own views and opinions.The survey was conducted randomly.
In 55% of surveyed households women dominated.Most households (80%) are older people (65 and over).The largest number of respondents live in the same place where they are born, and 20% are migrants from other neighboring places.In 85% the household is composed of two members.The main occupation to all respondents is agriculture (farming, fruit growing and livestock breeding).In the settlements located on the Kopaonik, in about 10 households one member is employed at the mine "Trepca", which is located along the administrative line.About 40% of examinee said that by agriculture can earn a decent living.
The main disadvantage to the most households in such a settlements are roads, because the connection to the town is very difficult, as well as objects of health and social care.Migration of the young and working population is constant since 80's of the last century, mostly because of education and seeking for the employment.Complete migration of the households started in 1999., after the war between the Serbs and Albanians (Rastelica, Vukojevac, Vasiljeva, Mačja Stena, Merdare, Orlovac, Tačevac).
In the research are included seasonal returnees, through an interview.Those households usually are engaged with vegetable farming and production of berries (blackberries and raspberries), what is a good opportunity for additional earnings.Many old households are revitalizing, and some of them near Blazevo and the Lukovska spa plan to have a touristic offer.In the majority of households people are aware that in rural areas money can be earned from agriculture.Dealing with the production of vegetables and berries, as well as their processing into finished products, they would be able to create a stock of healthy food in the easiest and cheapest way and to offer to the customers.The market for these products exists because along the administrative line there are many famous tourist centers (Jošanička Spa, Kopaonik-centre, Brzeće, Lukovska Spa, Kuršumlijska Spa, Devil City, Prolom Spa, Sijarinska Spa).They are all agree that they need stimulating help from competent authorities to enable them to rebuild their households and to open a few ethnic restaurants, which would be located in attractive areas.Most households are located near Brzeća, Lukovska Spa and Devil City.The owners think that the experiences gained from the spa resorts, could be used for the development of rural tourism, with some additional advices from more experienced hosts.Reconstruction and construction of the local road network is necessary at this moment.

SWOT analysis
The word "SWOT" is formed from the initial letters of four English words:: "Strenght", "Weaknesses", "Opportunities" and "Threats".The meanings of these words are based on identifying key strengths, weaknesses and opportunities which the space along the administrative line of Serbia towards the province of Kosovo and Metohija can use, as well as the threats which can have negative influence on the future development of rural settlements in this area. Disrepair farmland and reduced soil fertility;  A small percentage of farms ensure their crops.

CONCLUSION
Contemporary demographic changes, influenced by numerous factors and political instability, in correlation with low economic development had largely effected the current situation.The population in the area along the administrative line migrated to urban centers, from the higher mountain areas to the lower and developed parts of the region.In order to prevent further discharge of this area it is necessary to consider the real possibilities for economic development.Priority must be infrastructure, which is the basis of development.The higher mountain areas population should be encouraged in the development of animal husbandry, organic farming and conservation of native species.Abandoned mines, located in the villages of the municipality Kursumlija, Brus and Raska should be re-activated.Also, in towns near the highways the development of industries, based on natural resources should be achieved.
These methods (SWOT Statistical and GIS analysis) we can use for investigation of some new regions with similar thematic.The statistical approach we can complete with a geo-statistical and demographic calculation with fresh data.In that way, we can find some socio-demographic low in the territory of whole Serbia.
4. RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In most of the settlements (around 64) the majority of the population are Serbs, in six settlements the majority are Bosniaks, 25 settlements are populated by Albanians, and two by Montenegrins.Bosniak-Muslim settlements are at the territory of Tutin and Novi Pazar municipalities, Serbian are in the area of Raska, Bruce, Kursumlija, Leskovac, Lebane and Vranje, in Medvedja there are six settlements inhabited by Serbs, four by Albanians and two by Montenegrins.The Albanian settlements are in Bujanovac and Presevo ("see Fig. 1.").

Fig. 1 .
Fig.1.Distribution of majority population in settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohia; Source free GIS data DIVA (GIS) administrative areas and Statistical Office of the Republic Serbia.Scale 1:10,000000 WGS 84.

Fig. 2 .
Fig. 2. Changes in population in the settlements along the administrative lines by region.

Fig. 3 .
Fig. 3. Changes of the number of households in the settlements along the administrative lines by region.Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

Table 1 .
Territorial expanse of border settlements.

Table 2 .
Changes in number of residents in settlements along the administrative line Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

Table 3 .
Number and size of settlements (by population) along the administrative line.Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.The number of households from 4902 in 1948 dropped to 4331 in 2002.Population growth rate in this period is 3.8%.In the period 1953/1948.in10out of 11 municipalities, settlements had an population growth, and Presevo had a rate of natural decrease of 5%, while in the period 1961/1953 the rate of decrease of 0,3% was recorded only in settlements of the Kursumlija municipality.In the periods between the two census from 1961.trend of population decline is constantly increasing.Due to the lack of data on the number of households in the 2011 census in the municipality of Bujanovac and Presevo, movements of households are unknown between 2011/2002.In the towns of other 9 municipalities the population decline were recorded.In the period 2011/1948.6municipalitiesrecorded the rate of decrease (Novi Pazar, 47.4%, Kursumlija 67.4%, Medvedja 72.3%, 63% Lebane, Leskovac and Vranje 57.5%, 76.4%).Changes of the number of households in 63 different villages depends on their position.(Table4).

Table 4 .
Changes of the number of households in the settlements along the administrative line.

Table 5 .
The average number of household members in settlements along the administrative line.
Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Table 6 .
The overall population density (inh./Km 2 ) in areas along the administrative line.Source of data: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.